Electric cars are one of the few industries that in 2020 demonstrated growth both in Belarus and in the world as a whole. According to estimates of Malanka electric charging station network, the number of electric cars in the country has already exceeded 1600 cars, and energy consumption has increased 4 times and reached 6.4 million kWh. Taking into account the global trends in the transition to environmentally friendly transport and if new EV stimulation measures are taken in Belarus, experts predict that by 2030, in an optimistic scenario, more than 565 thousand electric cars may drive along the country's roads and consume about 2.3 billion kWh, which will equal 12.5% of the total BelAES capacity.
Back in June, the number of electric cars in Belarus was estimated at 400, but after the abolition of VAT and customs duty, cars with green plates began to appear more often on the streets of cities. Belorusneft, which owns the Malanka brand, the national operator of electric fuel stations in Belarus, forecasts further significant growth of electric transport. By the end of 2021, based on data from BloombergNEF and the International Energy Agency, experts predict that in Belarus will be 5,000 electric cars, in 2022 under the base case scenario – 25.8 thousand, in 2023 – 54 thousand, in 2024 – 82.8 thousand, in 2025 – 112.2, however, there is a more aggressive scenario in which the number of electric cars will be more than 230 thousand by 2025.
Two years ago, world experts predicted that by 2030 every fourth sold car would be on electric traction. Today, they agree that every second sold car, and this change of forecast is not surprising. For example, in Norway in 2020, the share of sales of “clean” electric cars has already exceeded 60% of total car sales in the country, and in European countries as a whole, sales of electrified cars for the first time exceeded sales of cars with diesel engines, – says Andrey Kotik. – The world’s largest auto concerns have already announced their intention to focus on producing only EV cars. By 2022, BMW will produce all electric cars at all its plants in Germany, and Honda will stop producing diesel power units in Europe by the end of the same year. Volkswagen Group will spend about €73 billion on electrification, hybrid power units and digital technologies over the next 5 years. By 2025 Nissan will start selling only electric and hybrid cars in China.